What are the main aspects to pay attention to PVC industry?
Supply
In terms of the supply of PVC powder, the change of production capacity and output is the key to supply analysis. The new capacity mainly depends on the tracking of new projects, and also needs to pay attention to the trend changes in the industrial enterprises' operating load rate and capacity utilization rate. In the period of continuous growth of capacity utilization, high load is bound to be accompanied by an increase in supply. At this time, the market drive is downward; On the contrary, the load reduction means the supply reduction and the market drive is upward. Since the production of PVC powder is mainly concentrated in the northwest regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, the starting load in the northwest region has obvious guidance for the change of PVC powder supply end.
Consumption
At present, it mainly tracks the apparent consumption and actual consumption of PVC powder. The actual consumption is derived from the output of PVC powder, the import and export volume of PVC powder and the relevant inventory data of PVC powder. When consumption increases, it often means that demand is better. In addition, apparent consumption and apparent consumption growth rate can also reflect the overall consumption situation to a certain extent.
stock
Inventory index is one of the important indexes reflecting the relationship between supply and demand of PVC powder. At present, the inventory is mainly of PVC powder in East China and South China sample warehouses. The inventory samples cover 18 mainstream warehouses in East China and South China, accounting for more than 80% of the total inventory in East China and South China warehouses. The warehouse inventory reflects the relative changes in the recent arrival and delivery of the warehouse. The warehouse inventory continues to rise, indicating that the market supply increases, and the price will fall accordingly; The continuous decline of warehouse inventory indicates that the warehouse supply of goods is greater than the receipt of goods, and the decrease of market supply of goods will drive the price up.
Cost and Profit
The profit of PVC powder is one of the factors affecting the future production of PVC powder. The profit of PVC powder is mainly affected by the price of raw materials such as calcium carbide, VCM, ethylene and PVC. Under the high profit mode, PVC powder enterprises may accelerate the start of construction, so it is necessary to track the impact of the profit change of PVC powder on the production of PVC powder. High profit is easy to stimulate the increase of PVC powder production, thus suppressing the subsequent upward space of PVC powder price; If the loss continues, some PVC powder enterprises may choose to reduce the load or shut down, and the production of PVC powder will decline. On the other hand, profits will also be transmitted between the industrial chains. If the profits of downstream products suffer serious losses, the demand of upstream products will be restrained, and the shipment will not be smooth, so it is easy to reduce the price and increase the volume, and the price is easy to fall.
It is mainly mentioned here that China's carbide law enterprises account for nearly 80%, so the price of carbide has a considerable impact on the cost of pvc, which cannot be ignored. The market in 2021 is mainly driven by the soaring price of carbide. The second is the price of caustic soda. When calculating the comprehensive cost, enterprises will not only consider pvc, but also include caustic soda, so the price of caustic soda is a factor that cannot be ignored.
Import and export quantity
The import and export volume is caused by changes in foreign supply and demand and changes in domestic and foreign price differences. Changes in foreign production and demand and changes in domestic and foreign price differences will lead to changes in import and export volume and import and export amount. The change of this data can be detected from the red period client of Zhuochuang Information. When many foreign units are shut down for maintenance or force majeure occurs to foreign units, but the foreign demand is stable, the import volume will be reduced, while when the domestic and foreign arbitrage space is opened, the export volume will be positively increased.
PVC powder is a terminal product in the whole industrial chain. There are many downstream consumption fields, each of which involves thousands of enterprises. So there is no direct data on downstream products in the industry at present. Because more than 65% of PVC powder is used in industries related to real estate, which is generally used in the middle and late stages of real estate construction, and has a certain correlation with the newly started area of real estate, the construction area of real estate and the completion data of real estate. Therefore, the industry generally conducts qualitative analysis and prediction on the downstream of PVC powder through the relevant data of real estate.
Yanhu Polyvinyl Chloride Resin SG5
