Does oil change from rising to falling?
The Zhou Ma Brown MPOB and the US Department of Agriculture USDA monthly reports have been released successively. Based on the data released in these two reports, the overall trend is bearish. However, domestic oil and fat are driven by macro fundamentals, and the overall decline is not deep, continuing to fluctuate in a large range. The current market lacks directional guidance. With the end of American soybean planting, the market will enter a weather market. Can the domestic spot oil prices hold up? The following is a brief analysis by the author for reference only!
The reference price for soybean oil spot market is as of noon on June 14th. The average spot price for primary soybean oil from major coastal manufacturers in China is around 8044 yuan/ton, with approximately 7860 yuan/ton in the Dalian region. Tianjin area costs about 7940 yuan/ton, Rizhao area costs about 7940 yuan/ton, Zhangjiagang area costs about 8040 yuan/ton, Dongguan area costs about 8010 yuan/ton, and Fangchenggang area costs about 7990 yuan/ton.
The monthly report of Meidou is biased towards being empty
This week, the overall trend of CBOT soybeans was mainly volatile, and new US soybean crops have entered the weather market. On the early morning of the 13th Beijing time, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a monthly report, which raised expectations for US old and new soybean inventories. The US Department of Agriculture has raised its forecast for US soybean carry over inventory for 2023/24 to 350 million bushels, higher than the May estimate of 340 million bushels and higher than analysts' average expectations. The US Department of Agriculture has raised its estimated inventory of new soybean crops for the 2024/25 fiscal year to 455 million bushels, higher than last month's 445 million bushels and also higher than the average analyst expectation of 448 million bushels. USDA has lowered its soybean crop production forecast for Brazil for 2023/24, from 154 million tons last month to 153 million tons. However, this data is higher than the average analyst expectation of 151.8 million tons, and this report is relatively neutral and bearish. At present, the new planting of American beans has come to an end, with a focus on weather changes during the growth cycle. In addition, the soybean planting area will also be announced at the end of the month, providing directional guidance to the market.
Palm oil from the production area has entered a production increase cycle
This week, the futures price of Ma Zong has weakened due to fluctuations, and the weekly chart of main contracts has fallen for the second consecutive week. On Monday, the Malaysian Palm Authority released data showing that Malaysia's palm oil imports in May were 20761 tons, a decrease of 40.28% compared to the previous month. Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1378443 tons, a month on month increase of 11.66%. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May was 1753544 tons, a month on month increase of 0.50%. Malaysia's palm oil production in May was 1704455 tons, a month on month increase of 13.48%. The production in May was 20000 to 50000 tons higher than expected, while exports were 20000 to 30000 tons lower than expected. However, imports were about 20000 tons less than expected, indicating a higher demand than expected. Therefore, the final inventory was similar to expected, and this report is neutral. The origin palm oil has entered a production cycle, and we need to pay attention to changes in inventory and exports. At the same time, the rise and fall of crude oil will also affect the cost-effectiveness advantage of palm oil.
