The rebound in raw material costs continues, with methanol futures prices gaining support
1.Marketreviewandoutlook
AsofthecloseofFridayonthefuturesmarket,themethanolcontracthasslightlyreduceditspositiontoday,with5,161positionsintheweightedmethanolcontractand4,966positionsinthe05maincontract.Theweightedcontract,theintradaytrend,fluctuateddownwardthroughouttheday,closingdown0.8%overall.
EmergingdownstreamdemandTheaverageoperatingloadrateofChina'scoal(methanol)toolefinsunitswas88.38%,down1.24%month-on-month.Ithasbeendecliningforthreeconsecutiveweeks,butisstillatamid-to-highhistoricallevel;portinventorieshavestoppedfallingandrebounded.InthethreemajorproductionareasofNorthwestChina,EastChina,andNorthChina,theoperatingrateshaveallincreased,andthesupplysidehasincreased.Althoughthefundamentalcontradictionisnotbig,thegapbetweensupplyanddemandhasexpanded,whichhassuppressedthepriceofmethanol.Theupstreamrawmaterialcostsideofthecoalmarketstoppedfallingandrebounded,whichprovidedsomesupportformethanolfuturesprices.Short-termmethanolpricefluctuationsareviewedasweak.
Technicaltrend:Inthehourlycycle,afterthepricebrokethroughthesecondarydownwardtrendpressureline,itcameunderpressureandadjustedslightlyattherecenthighpoint.Inthedailycycle,thepricereturnedtobelow2350again,andtheshort-termlongandshortsideswereatthekeyprice.Thereisfiercecompetitionnearby,andtheshorttermisexpectedtobevolatile.
2.IndustryNews
AccordingtoClarksonstatistics,in2023,therewere72ordersformethanoldual-fuelpoweredcontainershipswithadeadweightof8.869million,whileordersforLNGdual-fuelpoweredcontainershipswereonly43withadeadweightof5.916million.Comparedwithlastyear,ordersforLNGdual-fuelpoweredcontainershipswereashighas103withadeadweightof12.613milliontons,whileordersformethanoldual-fuelpoweredcontainershipswereonly34withadeadweightof5.640million.Fromthispointofview,theorderscaleofmethanoldual-fuelpowercontainershipsin2023hascompletelysurpassedthatofLNGdual-fuelpowercontainerships.BytheendofDecember2023,intermsofdeadweighttonnage,theproportionofmethanoldual-fuelpoweredshipsintheglobalcontainershiporderbookhasreached31.6%,andLNGdual-fuelpoweredships,whichaccountedfor40.4%,formedthe"twostrongones"ofenvironmentallyfriendlyfuelships."pattern.
CSSCTongliaoCity’s500,000-kilowattwindpowerhydrogenproductionandmethanolintegrateddemonstrationproject-hydrogenproductionandmethanolprojecthasbeenregistered.
