The rebound in raw material costs continues, with methanol futures prices gaining support

May 29, 2024, 11:58 AM

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As of the close of Friday on the futures market, the methanol contract has slightly reduced its position today, with 5,161 positions in the weighted methanol contract and 4,966 positions in the 05 main contract. The weighted contract, the intraday trend, fluctuated downward throughout the day, closing down 0.8% overall.

1.Marketreviewandoutlook

AsofthecloseofFridayonthefuturesmarket,themethanolcontracthasslightlyreduceditspositiontoday,with5,161positionsintheweightedmethanolcontractand4,966positionsinthe05maincontract.Theweightedcontract,theintradaytrend,fluctuateddownwardthroughouttheday,closingdown0.8%overall.

EmergingdownstreamdemandTheaverageoperatingloadrateofChina'scoal(methanol)toolefinsunitswas88.38%,down1.24%month-on-month.Ithasbeendecliningforthreeconsecutiveweeks,butisstillatamid-to-highhistoricallevel;portinventorieshavestoppedfallingandrebounded.InthethreemajorproductionareasofNorthwestChina,EastChina,andNorthChina,theoperatingrateshaveallincreased,andthesupplysidehasincreased.Althoughthefundamentalcontradictionisnotbig,thegapbetweensupplyanddemandhasexpanded,whichhassuppressedthepriceofmethanol.Theupstreamrawmaterialcostsideofthecoalmarketstoppedfallingandrebounded,whichprovidedsomesupportformethanolfuturesprices.Short-termmethanolpricefluctuationsareviewedasweak.

Technicaltrend:Inthehourlycycle,afterthepricebrokethroughthesecondarydownwardtrendpressureline,itcameunderpressureandadjustedslightlyattherecenthighpoint.Inthedailycycle,thepricereturnedtobelow2350again,andtheshort-termlongandshortsideswereatthekeyprice.Thereisfiercecompetitionnearby,andtheshorttermisexpectedtobevolatile.

2.IndustryNews

AccordingtoClarksonstatistics,in2023,therewere72ordersformethanoldual-fuelpoweredcontainershipswithadeadweightof8.869million,whileordersforLNGdual-fuelpoweredcontainershipswereonly43withadeadweightof5.916million.Comparedwithlastyear,ordersforLNGdual-fuelpoweredcontainershipswereashighas103withadeadweightof12.613milliontons,whileordersformethanoldual-fuelpoweredcontainershipswereonly34withadeadweightof5.640million.Fromthispointofview,theorderscaleofmethanoldual-fuelpowercontainershipsin2023hascompletelysurpassedthatofLNGdual-fuelpowercontainerships.BytheendofDecember2023,intermsofdeadweighttonnage,theproportionofmethanoldual-fuelpoweredshipsintheglobalcontainershiporderbookhasreached31.6%,andLNGdual-fuelpoweredships,whichaccountedfor40.4%,formedthe"twostrongones"ofenvironmentallyfriendlyfuelships."pattern.

CSSCTongliaoCity’s500,000-kilowattwindpowerhydrogenproductionandmethanolintegrateddemonstrationproject-hydrogenproductionandmethanolprojecthasbeenregistered.

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