CBOT Soybeans Drop on Improved Weather Outlook and Active Technical Selling

July 17, 2026

LYDD-Global

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Guide

Highlights at a glance

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended lower on Thursday, with the benchmark front-month contract down 0.7%. This decline was driven by strong technical selling as traders reacted to forecasts of milder weather across the U.S. Midwest next week, which could enhance crop conditions after a period of extreme heat. Notably, the November contract briefly hit an intraday high of $12.0675 before retreating. Weekly export sales data from the USDA revealed mixed results, with 2025/26 net sales exceeding expectations but remaining below the four-week average. Meanwhile, 2026/27 sales surged significantly, indicating strong demand. However, analysts project widening production losses per acre in the years ahead. Trading volume for the benchmark contract reached an estimated 106,987 lots, with open interest slightly declining from the previous session.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed lower on Thursday, with the front-month benchmark contract down 0.7%, pressured by heavy technical selling amid forecasts of milder weather across the U.S. Midwest next week.

At settlement, soybean futures lost between 5.75 and 8.25 US cents per bushel:

August contract: down 7.25 cents at $11.95 per bushel
September contract: down 7 cents at $11.8525 per bushel
November contract: down 6.75 cents at $11.95 per bushel

The benchmark contract traded in a range of $11.9375 to $12.0675 per bushel.

The November contract briefly hit an intraday high of $12.0675 before retreating.

Traders noted both the August and November contracts swung higher then lower, oscillating below this week’s peaks. The August contract briefly touched a six-week intraday high before being dragged down by technical liquidation.

After a week of extreme heat gripping the Midwest, temperatures are forecast to ease and rainfall chances rise next week, creating favorable growing conditions for crops.

Analysts said high temperatures across the Northern Plains and Midwest will persist through this weekend, yet the market has fully priced in the heat stress impact.

Brokerages also reported scattered cash soybean selling from U.S. farmers.

Weekly Export Sales Report (USDA, week ending July 9, 2026)

2025/26 marketing year: Net soybean sales reached 188,300 metric tons, well above the prior week but 23% below the four-week average, landing near the low end of market expectations.
2026/27 marketing year: Net soybean sales totaled 1,769,600 metric tons, surging from 408,300 tons a week earlier and topping market consensus forecasts.

According to data from the American Farm Bureau Federation, projected soybean production losses per acre will widen from $80 in 2026 to $138 in 2027. The federation has sent a letter to Congress requesting stronger financial relief support.

Trading Volume & Open Interest (Thursday Session)

Estimated trading volume for the benchmark contract: 106,987 lots, versus 128,683 lots in the prior session
Open interest: 502,565 lots, down from 505,911 lots on the previous trading day

Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Keep Climbing

Ended